Rwanda elections likely to confirm Kagame as President

By Lisa Zengarini

Over nine million Rwandans are going to the polls Monday to choose the next president and members of parliament in an election in which incumbent President Paul Kagame is expected to again win handily against two feeble opposition candidates after 30 years of unchallenged rule.

The 66 year-old leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has been in power since 1994, when Tutsi-led RPF seized power from the Hutu government ending the genocide that killed between 800,000 and one million Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

He was considered the de facto leader as vice president from 1994 until 2000 when he officially became president.

President Kagame running for a fourth consecutive mandate

He has since overwhelmingly won three consecutive elections. In 2015 Rwandans voted a referendum to lift the two-term constitutional limit on presidential terms and to shorten them from seven to five years, paving the way for Kagame to remain in power until 2034.

The incumbent president still continues to enjoy a vast popular support and is credited by his supporters for unifying Rwanda after the tragic events of 1994 and for steering development programmes that have allowed the central African nation to enjoy a strong economic growth.

One of the fastest-growing economies in Africa

According to the World Bank with an average growth of more than 7% between 2008 and 2022, this transformation has been accompanied by a substantial improvement in the standard of living.  The Rwandan population living below the poverty line has dropped from 75.2% in 2000 to 53.5% in 2013, though since then it has stagnated to 52%. Also, the country has recorded a sharp decline of the under-five mortality rate. Though Rwanda continues to struggle with high rates of youth unemployment, it is stll one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa.

Criticism  for negative human rights record and interference in DRC

However, Mr Kagame has been criticised by rights groups for his “autocratic” rule.  

Critics have accused the strong man of Kigali of not allowing any opposition and even of orchestrating cross-border assassinations of dissidents, to stay in power.

His foreign policy has also come under scrutiny. Rwanda's alleged military support to the M23 rebel group waging war in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and to the Resistance for Rule of Law (RED-Tabara) militia in Burundi is causing increasing tensions with these two neighbouring countries. In January this  years the bishops of the three African nations, gathered in the Association of Episcopal Conferences of Central Africa (ACEAC), expressed their deep concern and sadness over the escalation and reiterated their call for an end to the fighting in the DRC.

A recent UN report said there were some 4,000 Rwandan troops operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The UK-Rwanda asylum seeker deportation deal 

Kagame’s government suffered a blow recently after new UK Labour Prime Minster Keir Starmer announced that asylum seeker deportation deal it signed with the previous Conservative government would be scrapped.  The controversial agreement also criticized by the European Union, had  been plagued by setbacks since it was signed two years ago, with UK judges rejecting it on grounds that the Rwandan  asylum system  has poor human rights record, and of its previous failure to comply with non-refoulement agreements.

For his part, Mr Kagame rejected these allegations and has always fiercely defended Rwanda's record on human rights, saying his country respects political freedoms.

Two feeble  opposition candidates

Kagame is competing with only two other opposition candidates, Frank Habineza and Philippe Mpayimana, as others have been barred from running.

Habineza, 47, leader of the  Democratic Green Party of Rwanda. has pledged to boost water access and expand mechanised farming in a country where 70 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture.

Mpayimana, 54 a former journalist, professor and author who fled the genocide and lived abroad for several years who, among other things  has pledged to continue to the efforts of the Kagame government, especially in the agricultural sector, and to improve standards of living. He has also vowed to impose a three-child policy to tackle population growth.

Both opposition candidates, who already ran in the previous 2017 general elections obtaining just over 1% of votes  between them, have hardly any chance of winning.

Results of both the presidential and parliamentary are expected by July 20. The winner of the presidential vote will be declared based on a simple majority vote.