Netanyahu’s difficulties are behind the return of war in Gaza

By Roberto Cetera

A fortnight ago, we published a conversation with Israeli analyst and mediator Gershon Baskin entitled ‘The truce is over’ ('La tregua è finita', available in Italian here). To some that seemed rash. But it was not born of prescience or excessive pessimism. Rather, it came from the simple consideration that a plan for the future of Gaza was far from worked out, and domestic political reasons seemed to stand in the way of achieving an effective and lasting peace.

The difficulties on the Israeli side in moving to phase two of the truce, as planned in the agreement of 19 January, did not bode well. The fact that the transition to phase two was highly hypothetical was moreover indicated by the pressure exerted by the representatives of the extreme religious nationalist right, represented by ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, indispensable in guaranteeing a parliamentary majority for Benjamin Netanyahu's government.

Equally, dialogue between the parties was hampered by US President Trump's shock proposal to push Gaza's Palestinians to migrate to other Arab countries. This was a proposal that had aroused the disapproval of a large part of the international community and, in this country, of the Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, who on 13 February firmly declared the Holy See's opposition to any form of ‘deportation’.

Unfortunately, Baskin's prediction turned out to be right, and the Israeli armed forces (now commanded by General Eyar Zamir, who is considered much closer to Netanyahu than his predecessor Herzi Halevi was) have unilaterally begun a new military campaign, which began with aerial bombardments and is continuing in these hours with the use of ground troops and armoured vehicles. As I write, the number of victims has reportedly already reached almost 800, with a significant number of children. The videos that reach us from the few reporters left in the strip are gruesome and show desperate mothers in front of the bodies of children, even babies, buried in the rubble. Hamas responded by launching rockets towards Tel Aviv (for the first time in months), just after rockets launched by the Houtis in Yemen were intercepted.

Meanwhile, Israel is experiencing high internal tension. The street demonstrations against the Netanyahu government were massive, and the police reacted by using water cannons to disperse the crowds. Israeli citizens are concerned that the resumption of bombing in Gaza may jeopardise the release of the Israeli hostages still in the hands of Hamas inside Gaza.

But in the last few hours another heavy cloud has appeared over the government. This is the feud that is pitting it against the head of the internal intelligence service, Shin Bet, whom Netanyahu wants to force to resign, despite the disagreement of Israel's top court. The intelligence service allegedly presented an analysis before 7 October warning the executive about the possibility of an event such as the one that actually occurred, which Netanyahu deliberately ignored. The Shin Bet report allegedly highlighted the dangerousness of the prime minister's policy of allowing the passage of substantial Qatari funding to Hamas, in the belief that this ‘favour’ would prevent Hamas from carrying out major attacks against Israel. In recent hours, the Israeli press and TV have revealed that Shin Bet investigations would prove the transfer of sums of money from Qatar to Netanyahu's military affairs spokesman, Eli Feldestein.

Qatar’s murky role had already been pointed out a year ago in these pages by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Yigal Carmon, an intelligence expert and now president of the Memri Institute. Feldestein had already been arrested last November on charges of having stolen classified information and passed it on to foreign media. The former prime minister, also a right-wing politician, yesterday demanded Netanyahu's immediate resignation, accusing him of ‘treason’ and of having ‘lost the moral authority to send soldiers to the front’, given the fact that one of his closest collaborators was in fact salaried by Qatar, i.e. by Hamas' financiers.

The impression that pressure on Netanyahu is now at an all-time high is confirmed by the unexpected statements made by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, known for his cautious style. Herzog, while not naming Netanyahu, criticised a ‘divisive and one-sided’ style, adding that ‘it is not possible not to be concerned about the harsh reality that is before our eyes. Thousands of recall cards have been sent to reservists recently, but it is inconceivable to send our sons to the front while at the same time controversial moves are being pursued that deepen internal divisions’. He went on to say: ‘It is impossible to resume fighting to fulfil the sacred command to bring the hostages home, and at the same time not listen to and support their desperate families going through hell on earth’. Herzog went on to express his support for the families' demand for an independent enquiry into the events of 7 October, that Netanyahu has always rejected. And he expressed his solidarity with the civil servants affected by unilateral measures, with clear reference to the dismissal of the head of the Shin Bet. These statements were immediately taken up by the large number of protestors who demonstrated in the evening in Jerusalem against the dismissal of Ronen Bar and the unilateral end to the ceasefire in Gaza.