Ukraine war: Deep uncertainty about the statistics

By Guglielmo Gallone

It’s been 1,000 days since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Behind that figure lie many other statistics, many deliberately hidden, because war is fought with information as well as with weapons.

First and foremost, there is the most difficult figure of them all – the number of victims. In September, The Wall Street Journal, citing intelligence sources, wrote that around a million people had died, both Ukrainians and Russians, since the 24th February 2022.[1] Most of those were soldiers belonging to both sides, followed by Ukrainian civilians.

In the same month, the BBC and the independent website Mediazona estimated at 70,000 Russian soldiers had died in Ukraine, 20% of whom were volunteers.[2]

The numbers supplied by the Journal would seem to be in line with those provided a year earlier, in August 2023, by The New York Times, which put the number of deaths up to that point at around 500.000. [3]

There is more consensus – thanks, above all, to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR)  - around the number of displaced persons. 6.7 million Ukrainians have fled the country, while around 4 million have been internally displaced.[4]

It’s not hard to see why flight seems like the only option for so many. In August, in one attack alone, 184 civilians were killed and 856 wounded.[5]

Infrastructure is not spared, either. Missiles have targeted 3,798 schools, destroying 356 of them.[6]

Since the start of the war, 1,619 medical facilities have been damaged and 214 obliterated, those in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Kherson e Zaporizhzhia oblasts being the most affected.[7]

20% of Ukraine’s conservation areas have been impacted, with the Russian army occupying eight nature reserves and ten national parks.[8] Air quality is also impacted, as vehicles, planes, and drones increase greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants such as ammonia, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides.[9]

All of this has an impact on Ukraine’s economy, which was historically based on agriculture. Until a few years ago, it was considered “the world’s breadbasket”, exporting 20% of the world’s wheat and 45% of its sunflower oil.

Today – thanks, also, to strikes on its Black Sea ports – Ukraine has lost almost all of its commercial power. The effect on the prices of goods has been severe, increasing inflation across Europe and disrupting supply chains in African countries.[10] Moreover, due to electricity shortages, Ukraine has begun dismantling its thermal power plants to harvest parts for repairing other power plants.

The country’s economy is suffering as a result. In September, inflation reached 8.6% due to rising food prices, increased production costs, and continued pressure from the devaluation of currency.

Although Ukraine’s population is shrinking, the unemployment rate in October remained above 15%, and the poverty index—measuring those forced to cut back on food—stayed at 20%. Despite this, state budget revenues in Ukraine have been used to fund defense. Civilian expenses have instead been supported by external aid.[11]

Each of these numbers hide stories, stories which reveal the tragic humanity of the most inhuman act there can be – war.

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[1] Pancevski B., ‘One Million Are Now Dead or Injured in the Russia-Ukraine War’, The Wall Street Journal, 17/9/2024.

[2] Ivshina O., ‘Volunteers dying as Russia’s war dead tops 70,000’, BBC, 20/9/2024.

[3] Cooper H., Gibbons-Neff T., Schmitt E., Barnes J. E., ‘Troop Deaths and Injuries in Ukraine War Near 500,000, U.S. Officials Say’, The New York Times, 18/8/2023.

[4] UNHCR, ‘1,000 days of full-scale war on Ukraine: UNHCR’s deputy chief urges solidarity with innocent victims’, 12/11/2024.

[5] United Nations Human Rights, ‘Ukraine: protections of civilians in armed conflict – august 2024 update’, 6/9/2024.

[6] DW News, ‘В Україні повністю зруйновано 365 закладів освіти – Лубінець’, 02/09/2024.

[7] Sources collected by the Ukrainian Ministry of Health: ‘Втрати медичної системи за понад два роки війни: 1833 об’єкти медзакладів пошкоджені або зруйновані вщент’, 24/06/2024.

[8] Cfr. Filho W. L., Eustachio J., Fedoruk M., Lisovska T., ‘War in Ukraine: an overview of environmental impacts and consequences for human health’, Frontiers in Sustainable Resource Management, 19/7/2024.

[9] Cfr. Mehrabi M., Scaioni M., Previtali M., ‘Air quality monitoring in Ukraine during 2022 military conflict using Sentinel -5p imagery’, Air Qual Atmos Health 17, 931-952 (2024).

[10] Cfr. Filho W. L, Fedoruk M., Eustachio J. et al., ‘How the war in Ukraine affects food security’, Foods 2023, 12, 3996.

[11] Statistics from the Centre for Economic Strategy’s Ukraine War Economy Tracker, last updated 4/11/2024.